Could they? Would they?

The next immediate question IS “would these 4 schools join the SEC”?

Florida State and Clemson are both in the ACC, and while they both have benefited in basketball quality from this ACC association, the difference is in the TV $$ between the SEC and ACC. The new ACC TV contract, divvies up $155 million per year at a clip of almost $13 million per school. Is $4 million dollars a year enough to walk away from the Basketball benefits? But $12 million would be. I will get to this point soon.

However, I think both schools would get political pressure from state politicians to join their other in-state rivalries (SC and UF) if the $$$ was right.

Texas and Texas A&M are both part of the Big 12 and the same is true for them in regards to TV contract. As we are seeing today, it may come to a bidding war for Texas. But it sounds like Texas A&M is looking at the SEC. However, politically, I think if one of them were to join any conference and the $$$ was right, in-state politicians would pine for the other to join so as to keep them together. Another main reason to keep them together would be that these two would be in the same boat as UGA, Florida, and South Carolina about playing a bitter rival outside of a 10 conference game schedule. I will expand on that topic shortly.

I think a big player in the SEC expansion will be Texas A&M. As the numbers above showed, A&M is a really strong candidate. I thought they would be behind Oklahoma, but they beat them pretty soundly.

It all boils down to the almighty dollar. I think ESPN, as always, will be a great influence on this decision. Who do they want Texas to join? Who does ESPN want the #1 conference to be? That decides who gets the TV money to get the teams that ESPN wants together. If it is the SEC, I would image that a new TV deal is announced for around 15-years for a $6 Billion contract. That would work out to be $25 million for each of the new 16 SEC Schools per year which would eclipse the current Big 10 contract.

Texas either ends up in the PAC 10 or the SEC. The Big 10 is not a player for Texas, in my opinion. It would be hard to come up with a TV contract big enough to split that would equal the current Big 10 $22 million per member school amount. I think ESPN would want Texas in the SEC because of $$$. That is not SEC bias talking. Let me explain.

Does ESPN really want two conference TV contracts worth a total of around $5.8 Billion dollars? The $5.8 Billion is the $2.25 Billion for the current SEC TV contract and around $3.6 Billion for the “new PAC-16”. This $3.6 Billion would get the new PAC 16 TV contract competitive ($15 million per member school per year for 15 years)). These two new contracts would mean splitting national games. Why no just offer the SEC a new $6 Billion and let it dominate the national college football landscape.

Do you think Clemson, FSU, Texas, and Texas A&M turns down $25 million per year? Do you think instate political pressure would let them?