In a good compromise..................

No one is happy. A lot of tremors, but we never had the big one. There will be a few aftershocks in Utah and the MWC, but the MWC trades Utah for Boise St. Is that a fair trade off? Wait a second I overlooked something before I started to type this entry. How stupid of me. It's non-automatic qualifiers, who cares.

There are winners and losers as Mr. Hale points out. And the Senator has a good run down of the aftermath.

However, I can't but think of how a TA&MU fan feels this morning.

Are you relieved that life as you know it stays the same and you are still able to keep the band together? Or do you feel abused and deflated because independence was so close. The glory land was right there! BUT, big brother says here I will LET you share in my glory and awesomeness . Big Brother was the power broker that pulled all this off. Why don't you just sit down right there......... because Texas runs this state.

I like TA&MU, but they sound so familiar. They start to show a little growth and independence. A little misplaced bravado. And BOOM. Back to whining and complaining because your big brother in-state rival reminded you of your roll and told you sit down!

Oh yeah I remember now..............................TAKE THAT TECHIE!!!!!!

So what have we Learned??!??!

ESPN runs this country.

More money. More problems (on the UGA schedule.)

In all this, I really think Georgia Tech and Florida State joins the SEC. IF UGA and UF want to maintain the Jacksonville venue then they would push for their in-state rivals. South Carolina does not have a similar revenue generator to back or push for Clemson.

As always, politics always win.

Then again, I read that the Jacksonville contract has not been officially signed yet? Does this mean they may be holding out for expansion?Mmmmmmm….Could be?

At the end of the day and after doing all this theorizing and contemplating, I hope the SEC holds put and DOES NOT expand.

But as I have said when ESPN and the Benjamin's start talking, it will be interesting to see how Mike Slive and the presidents respond.

The question I pose to you Dawg fans, is $8 million a year for UGA enough to play that MEGA SEC schedule? When is enough……………..enough?

You, Me, and the MEGA-SEC

How does the expanded MEGA-SEC affect the fine University of Georgia?

As I have heard it said, you can’t really call yourself a conference if you don’t play at least 3 teams from the other division each year.

So now SEC teams would only get 2 out of conference games each year. I would guess UGA would want to maintain the rivalry with Georgia Tech, so UGA only gets one patsy each year.

Let’s look at it as if it was in place for the 2010 season for UGA.

U of L-L

@South Carolina

Arkansas

@Mississippi State

Clemson

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

@Kentucky

Florida (Jacksonville)

@ Florida State

@ Auburn

Georgia Tech

UGA’s Western Division Rotation COULD be:

Arkansas

Mississippi State

Texas

Ole Miss

Alabama

Texas A&M

LSU

That right there is a scary schedule. I am making the call to open with a patsy rather than playing one for Homecoming. Let’s just make Vandy homecoming. We would want Clemson at home during the same year as when we are at South Carolina. This schedule may be worse than 2009 or 2008.

Yikes! Do we want the SEC to become THAT competitive?

The west rotation is hopeful AT best on my part, it would separate Alabama, Texas, and LSU. So that we would NOT have to play two of those teams in any one year. UGA will not be that lucky. We probably will have two of them in a one year schedule every 6 years.

A few other observations:

Either UGA or South Carolina gets the shaft

In this scenario with Clemson joining the SEC, UGA is most affected. This is because South Carolina would get to take its OOC rivalry and make it a conference rivalry. If it was GT to join, then South Carolina would be most affected. The one that gets their in-state OOC rival to join the SEC gets to schedule two patsies. The other would get in-state pressure to maintain its OOC rival while only getting one patsy on the schedule.

Jacksonville fans better cheer or pull for Georgia Tech to join the SEC. This is where CBS may get in the negotiations. If CBS wants to continue to televise in Jacksonville, then they would push for GT, I think.

Would this scenario of expansion talk kill Jacksonville? Most definitely. IF UGA wanted to maintain a rivalry with GT. UGA would have 12 games a year. This is because of the following breakdown:

Even Years:

3 SEC east home games

3 SEC west home games

1 Jacksonville

2 SEC west home games

1 SEC west away game

1 OOC patsy

1 Georgia Tech

12 games (6 home)

Odd Years:

3 SEC east home games

3 SEC west home games

1 Jacksonville

2 SEC west away games

1 SEC west home game

1 OOC patsy

1 Georgia Tech away

12 games (5 home)

We all know we will WANT/NEED 6 home games a year. The only way to maintain Jacksonville would be to have Georgia Tech to join the SEC. South Carolina would not have the 6 home game problem IF Clemson were to join the SEC because of their home and home series, but it would only allow SC to have 1 patsy scheduled.

I am a proponent of making the UF game a home and home series AND I would rather have Clemson in the SEC than Georgia Tech. I know that hurts us with only one patsy on the schedule, but I think Clemson is more of a SEC school.

UF would not have the same issue because Florida State would join the SEC. Now they would have our exact same issue IF it was Clemson and Georgia Tech to join the SEC.

With Michael Adams, our current UF loosing trend, and the elimination of the WLOCP moniker, does Jacksonville still mean all that much? Eliminating this game has been is the discussion for a while any way.

MEGA-SEC!!!!!! Super SEC??!?!? What's in a name?

Now that we have reviewed the $$$ and the reasoning, let’s make the leap (for further discussion purposes) to say that these four schools WOULD indeed join the new MEGA-SEC:

The new MEGA-SEC:

East

UGA

Florida

Tennessee

South Carolina

Kentucky

Vanderbilt

Florida State

Clemson

West

Alabama

Auburn

LSU

Ole Miss

Mississippi State

Arkansas

Texas

Texas A&M

How would this affect the landscape of the SEC:

In regards to the new TV contract, it would be huge. Look at some of the annual games you would get.

Texas vs. Alabama

Texas vs. LSU

Texas vs. Auburn

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas

Florida State vs. Tennessee

Florida State vs. UGA

Clemson vs. UGA

Clemson vs. Florida

Clemson vs. Tennessee

Clemson vs. Kentucky (and not in the Music City Bowl)

Potentially: (maintained on cross divisional annual opponents)

Texas vs. Florida State

Clemson vs. Texas A&M

Big games every 6 years:

Texas vs. Florida

Texas vs. UGA

Texas vs. Florida State

Texas vs. Tennessee

Florida State vs. Alabama

Florida State vs. Auburn

Florida State vs. LSU

Clemson vs. LSU

Clemson vs. Alabama

Clemson vs. Auburn

Is there enough ESPN night games to go around? Maybe CBS would go to two games each week.

With this line up, I really doubt we have undefeated SEC teams any more. However, the national respect level would go up even more.

Note: Playing a 10 game conference schedule, the new MEGA SEC teams will only get to schedule two OOC games each year.

Could they? Would they?

The next immediate question IS “would these 4 schools join the SEC”?

Florida State and Clemson are both in the ACC, and while they both have benefited in basketball quality from this ACC association, the difference is in the TV $$ between the SEC and ACC. The new ACC TV contract, divvies up $155 million per year at a clip of almost $13 million per school. Is $4 million dollars a year enough to walk away from the Basketball benefits? But $12 million would be. I will get to this point soon.

However, I think both schools would get political pressure from state politicians to join their other in-state rivalries (SC and UF) if the $$$ was right.

Texas and Texas A&M are both part of the Big 12 and the same is true for them in regards to TV contract. As we are seeing today, it may come to a bidding war for Texas. But it sounds like Texas A&M is looking at the SEC. However, politically, I think if one of them were to join any conference and the $$$ was right, in-state politicians would pine for the other to join so as to keep them together. Another main reason to keep them together would be that these two would be in the same boat as UGA, Florida, and South Carolina about playing a bitter rival outside of a 10 conference game schedule. I will expand on that topic shortly.

I think a big player in the SEC expansion will be Texas A&M. As the numbers above showed, A&M is a really strong candidate. I thought they would be behind Oklahoma, but they beat them pretty soundly.

It all boils down to the almighty dollar. I think ESPN, as always, will be a great influence on this decision. Who do they want Texas to join? Who does ESPN want the #1 conference to be? That decides who gets the TV money to get the teams that ESPN wants together. If it is the SEC, I would image that a new TV deal is announced for around 15-years for a $6 Billion contract. That would work out to be $25 million for each of the new 16 SEC Schools per year which would eclipse the current Big 10 contract.

Texas either ends up in the PAC 10 or the SEC. The Big 10 is not a player for Texas, in my opinion. It would be hard to come up with a TV contract big enough to split that would equal the current Big 10 $22 million per member school amount. I think ESPN would want Texas in the SEC because of $$$. That is not SEC bias talking. Let me explain.

Does ESPN really want two conference TV contracts worth a total of around $5.8 Billion dollars? The $5.8 Billion is the $2.25 Billion for the current SEC TV contract and around $3.6 Billion for the “new PAC-16”. This $3.6 Billion would get the new PAC 16 TV contract competitive ($15 million per member school per year for 15 years)). These two new contracts would mean splitting national games. Why no just offer the SEC a new $6 Billion and let it dominate the national college football landscape.

Do you think Clemson, FSU, Texas, and Texas A&M turns down $25 million per year? Do you think instate political pressure would let them?

Expansion Candidates Scoring System

Over the last few posts we have looked at the possible candidates for SEC expansion, now let’s try to create a scoring system for rating them for consideration.

Geography:

In a SEC State: 2 points

Contiguous with the SEC map: 1 point

Within 300 miles of existing SEC schools: 1 point for each existing SEC school

Stadium Size

The average SEC stadium size is 77,716. That’s with a 39,790 of Vanderbilt pulling the average down. So let’s do this:

If the stadium is:

Within 5,000 seats of that average: +2

5,000 seats over that average: +5 points

22,634 + below the average: -5 points

(22,634 is the difference between Mississippi State, 2^nd smallest, and the average)

Season Tickets

Priority Program: +3

General Public: -1

TV market: If a team has a market that is in the top 10 nationally: +10

Top 25 nationally: +5

Top 50 nationally: +2

Top 100 nationally: +1

A team can receive points for each market considered in this exercise.

Rivalry Impact:

If the team would rekindle or maintain existing SEC rivalries: +5

Meaning if a school has an existing rivalry with an SEC team and it will now become a conference game OR a historical rivalry that can be renewed with expansion.

Traditions:

We will use the subjective ratings that I gave each school early in our discussion.

Commitment Level of Fans:

Are they SEC caliber (subjective): +5

Previous SEC ties: +3

Other subjective considerations: +1

Is the school prominently/nationally known as a Football school?

This is slightly subjective and the real consideration is for football. This national debate is not a conference expansion discussion for basketball or other non-football sports. Football is the $$ maker.

If yes: +5

If equal as basketball and football: +2

If really not known nationally: 0

Now with the scoring system set up, let's look at the scores:

East	Total Score
Florida State	55.25
Clemson	47.5
Miami	28
South Florida	27
UGA Tech	27
Louisville	23.5
Central Florida	21
West:
Texas	53
Texas A&M	48
Oklahoma	33
Oklahoma State	22.5
Texas Tech	22
TCU	13
Houston	11.5

So the score card tells us that Florida State and Clemson would by far be the best choices for the east, and that Texas and Texas A&M would by far be the best choices for the west. The two teams that I had thought would show or compete in this math would be Oklahoma and Georgia Tech. They would be the biggest losers in all of this. Georgia Tech would be potentially out of rivals with either UGA or Clemson. Both teams may consider maintaining out-of-conference games with GT, but probably not both. I would hope UGA would. Clemson would probably drop them. Oklahoma could maintain the Red River Rivalry as an out of conference game, but probably as a home and home series.

Potential SEC West expansion Candidates

Let’s explore the possible candidates for SEC West expansion.

Western Candidates:

School: Texas

Geography: state of Texas (contiguous with the SEC map)

Stadium Size: 100,119

Season ticket process: seating priority annual donation ($110 for Red River Rivalry!)

TV market: Austin TX (49) with most of Dallas (5), Houston (10), and San Antonio (37)
Rivalry Impact: Texas A&M and Oklahoma. One of them would probably come with you, and the down side is that you would possibly loose the other

Traditions: Hook’em Horns, Bevo, “The Eyes of Texas” 5.0

Commitment level of fans: 100,119 seats and Hook’em horns! SEC caliber.

School: Oklahoma

Geography: state of Oklahoma (contiguous with the SEC map)

Stadium Size: 82,112

Season ticket process: Sooners Club. Priority point system based on donations AND tied to attendance of the games

TV market: Oklahoma City (45) with Dallas (5)
Rivalry Impact: Texas, Nebraska, and OSU. You may get to keep Texas, but would probably loose OSU and Nebraska.

Traditions: Winning tradition, Sooner Schooner. 4.00

Commitment level of fans: Travel well. SEC caliber.

School: Texas A&M

Geography: state of Texas (contiguous with the SEC map)

Stadium Size: 83,002

Season ticket process: per seat donation ($37.50-$3500) with 2010 seats available

TV market: most of Dallas (5), Houston (10), and some of San Antonio (37)
Rivalry Impact: Texas, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Would probably maintain Texas, but loose the other two. But ask an A&M fan, if they would trade Baylor and TT for Arkansas and LSU.

Traditions: 12^th man, Bon fire, Yell Leaders, Fightin’ Aggie Band 5.0

Commitment level of fans: 12^th man. Enough said. SEC caliber.

School: Oklahoma State University

Geography: state of Oklahoma (contiguous with the SEC map)

Stadium Size: 60,218

Season ticket process: donation required

TV market: Oklahoma City (45) with Dallas (5)
Rivalry Impact: Oklahoma. Could maintain rivalry if both joined.

Traditions: Somewhat. 2.5

Commitment level of fans: One fan is all you need when he is T. Boone Pickens.

School: Texas Tech

Geography: state of Texas (contiguous with the SEC map)

Stadium Size: 61,000

Season ticket process: Annual seat license price and Red Raider Club Donation

TV market: some of Dallas (5)
Rivalry Impact: Texas A&M and Texas. One of them would probably come with you, and the down side is that you would possibly loose the other. How much would Tommy Tuberville love to play Auburn and the SEC West?

Traditions: Mike Leach and sorts 2.0

Commitment level of fans: mid-level. Who knows?

School: TCU

Geography: state of Texas (contiguous with the SEC map)

Stadium Size: 44,008

Season ticket process: no priority seating

TV market: Dallas (5)
Rivalry Impact: SMU, Baylor, and Texas Tech. They would probably give up those to join the SEC.

Traditions: Don’t know of any and even Wikipedia doesn’t list any. 1.0

Commitment level of fans: With a 44,008 seat stadium is there a demand for TCU football in an area with the Dallas Cowboys

School: Houston

Geography: state of Texas (contiguous with the SEC map)

Stadium Size: 32,000

Season ticket process: Cougar Pride seating ($50-$60 per seat)

TV market: Houston (10)
Rivalry Impact: are there any? Would love to join the SEC.

Traditions: Run and Shoot Offense. 1.5

Commitment level of fans: 32,000 seat stadium. Really? There are high school stadiums in Texas bigger than that.

Potential SEC East Expansion Candidates

Let’s explore the possible candidates for SEC East expansion. This exploration implements the parameters that we discussed previously.

Eastern Candidates

School: Florida State University

Geography: state of Florida (on the SEC map)

Stadium Size: 83,500

Season ticket process: Seminole Boosters with priority applied with donations

TV market: Tallahassee (105) and some of: Atlanta (8), Tampa (13), Orlando (19), Jacksonville (47), Pensacola/Mobile, AL (60),
Rivalry Impact: Top3: UF, Miami, and Clemson? Pros: the #1 rival becomes a conference game; you may loose Miami and/or Clemson. Could pick up some new regional rivals that would exceed Miami and Clemson in UGA and Alabama. Cons: you could loose your #2 and #3 rivals

Traditions: lots of winning in the last 20 years, not so much in the last 7. Chief Oseola and Tomahawk chop. 4.25

Commitment level of fans: SEC caliber. Period. Travel well.

School: Clemson

Geography: state of South Carolina (on the SEC map)

Stadium size: 80,301

Season ticket process: IPTAY

TV market: Greenville/Spartanburg (36) with a share of, Columbia, SC (79) Atlanta (8) and Charlotte, NC (24)

Rivalry Impact: Top 3 rivals. South Carolina, Georgia Tech, and FSU. Pros: Come to the SEC and the SC game becomes a conference game AND you renew the UGA rivalry. Cons: You may loose the GT game or the FSU game, but maybe not both. Ask the average Clemson fan if they would trade either GT or FSU for UGA and I bet you get resounding yes!

Traditions: Known as a football school, rubbing the rock, and playing by the lake. One football conference championship in the last 20 years: Score: 3.5

Commitment Level of fans: Clemson fans travel very well. They have had numerous sellouts each year, and much like their in-state brethren, SC, they have a renewed, albeit naïve, and higher level of expectations each year. Remember, last year was the first time they have made the ACC championship game since the ACC expanded. SEC caliber.

School: Georgia Tech

Geography: state of UGA (on the SEC map)

Stadium Size: 55,000

Season ticket process: Tech Fund (where applicable)

TV market: Atlanta (8)
Rivalry Impact: Top 3: UGA, Clemson, and who? VT, FSU? Pros: Just like Clemson, your biggest rival becomes a conference game; you may loose the Clemson and/or the FSU game. VT would end.

Traditions: The Ramblin’ Wreck, Buzz, Bobby Dodd, John Hiesman, two conference championship games in the last 20 years. Score: 4

Commitment level of fans: Fan base is where GT falls short. They don’t sell out home games, they don’t travel well, but the few that they do have are committed. Could compete with the Falcons for a fanbase, but I don’t think that is the case. But I will mention it because I give Miami, South Florida, and TCU a break.

School: University of Miami

Geography: state of Florida (on the SEC map)

Stadium Size: 72,319

Season ticket process: general public (ticketmaster) (no seat priority- starts at $99 season ticket package)

TV market: Miami (17) with some of Orlando (19), West Palm (38) Ft. Meyers (62)
Rivalry Impact: FSU and VT? The FSU rivalry would not change if both came into the conference, and it would pick up UF. Cons: Loose VT, but are they really a rival?

Traditions: lots of winning in the last 20 years, not so much in the last 7. The U! Good football, nice weather for an away game. 3.0

Commitment level of fans: Fair weather. Literally. It’s too nice of weather in Miami to go to a football game. There is no fall atmosphere in 80° in November. Also competes with the Miami Dolphins for a fan base.

School: Louisville

Geography: state of Kentucky (on the SEC map)

Stadium Size: 56,000

Season ticket process: Cardinal Athletic Fund

TV market: Louisville (50) with some of Lexington, KY (63) Cincinnati (34) and Indianapolis (25)
Rivalry Impact: Kentucky, Cincinnati, and Big East Basketball. As much as Kentucky would want them in and as much $$ the SEC TV contract could offer, I find it hard to believe they would leave the Big East basketball environment.

Traditions: Does anyone know of Louisville football traditions. I can name past coaches even not named Petrino. But no national stage except under Bobby’s watch. 1.5.

Commitment level of fans: Don’t know, but as far a looking at their season ticket process, I would say high.

School: South Florida

Geography: state of Florida (on the SEC map)

Stadium Size: Raymond James Stadium (Bucs Stadium) 66,321

Season ticket process: General Public (ticketmaster)

TV market: Tampa (13), with some of Miami (17), Orlando (19), West Palm (38), Jacksonville (47), Ft. Meyers (62)
Rivalry Impact: Does the football team have a rival? They are a young program. They would love to be in the SEC.

Traditions: Not too many with the youth of the program, especially when you are competing with NFL football for fans 0.5

Commitment level of fans: not too much.

School: Central Florida

Geography: state of Florida (on the SEC map)

Stadium Size: 45,301

Season ticket process: General Public (ticketmaster) (no seat priority- starts at $99 season ticket package)

TV market: Orlando (19) with some Tampa (13), Miami (17), West Palm (38), Ft. Meyers (62)
Rivalry Impact: When Wikipedia lists your rivals as: South Florida, FIU, Marshall, and Tulsa you would love to be in the SEC.

Traditions: not too many its central and south Florida football. 1.0

Commitment level of fans: not too much.